2023 may one day be seen as having quietly marked the end of an investing era—and with some relief. Already, few market participants yearn for the financial meltdowns, monetary blowouts, unchecked (and unfunded) fiscal stimulus, and far-reaching pandemic fallout that defined the past fifteen years. It is good to see positive interest rates and discussion of organic economic forces return to the fore, and evidence of renewed investor discipline now that money once again carries a cost. Nevertheless, history has neither stopped, nor restored some mythic, pre-2008 simplicity. Sovereign debt levels stand at staggering records, and political, demographic and technological change guarantee that past performance will not guide us to the future. Perhaps most of all, the mechanics of responsible asset allocation are, if anything, even more important now that equities must compete with bonds for investor attention. Indeed, recent data suggests a range of plausible scenarios to consider for both asset classes as we look toward 2024.
Quarterly Market Outlook
The Clear Harbor Market Outlook is a quarterly market update.