Clear Harbor Outlook for 2024 Q3
As we cross the threshold into July, many of the tensions that have defined the year so far seem poised to come to a head. The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates higher for much longer than most expected, which has helped bring inflation down steadily; the question now is how much growth will suffer, and whether the Fed will cry “Uncle!” in time to avoid a swing to recession. Indeed, despite a surprisingly strong first half, recent consumer and manufacturing data has been decidedly mixed. While investors are vigilant for signs of an economic downshift at home, they are equally wary of escalating geopolitical tensions and diverging monetary policies abroad. They also perceive that interest rates have peaked for the cycle—an important consideration for those who allocate to multi-asset-class portfolios. What is the best way forward in such an environment?